China's Revenge Serves Body Blows to BHP and Rio

China's revenge serves body blows to BHP and Rio

It's taken six years, but China is slowly turning the tables on the heavyweight iron ore miners.

In 2009, iron ore giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto decided they wanted to take advantage of China's soaring demand for iron ore, which was pushing prices ever higher. So they ditched the 40-year old system of setting annual contract prices in favour of using spot pricing for the majority of their iron ore shipped to China from 2010.

Needless to say, China's steel mills weren't very happy about that. BHP's previous CEO Marius Kloppers is widely acknowledged as the man most responsible for bringing about the change. With BHP and Rio filling a huge amount of China's demand, the steelmakers had little choice but to acquiesce.

The changes, and China's thirst for iron ore, saw the iron ore price soar as high as US$191 per tonne in February 2011, from around US$60 per tonne in 2008. Rio Tinto produced record underlying earnings of US$15.5 billion in the 2011 financial year, with iron ore contributing US$12.9 billion. BHP, for its part, saw net profit rise 74 per cent to US$21.7 billion as revenues rose 36 per cent.

China may also still be sore over aluminium giant Chinalco's aborted US$19.5 billion investment in Rio Tinto back in 2010, which was aimed at gaining resource security. At the time, reports suggest Chinese officials feared that China was too vulnerable to both Rio and BHP, even separately. Rio's board canned the deal, and announced that it was instead forming an iron ore joint venture with BHP. That deal never went ahead – much to the relief of China.

The giant (re)awakens

But China has never forgotten, and appears unlikely to forgive. Now the sleeping giant has awakened, and looks set to turn the tables on Rio and BHP.

Firstly, China needed to loosen its dependence on the two Australian iron ore miners, so it has turned to Brazil's Vale. For many years Vale was snubbed by the Chinese. The iron ore giant had built a number of very large ore carriers to ship ore to China, but they have been banned from docking at Chinese ports since 2012.

Now, China hasn't just removed the restrictions but Vale has also sold 4 of the ore carriers to two of China's biggest shipping companies. Each carrier can transport up to 400,000 tonnes of iron ore, and could reduce Vale's production costs by as much as 25 per cent, according to some estimates. That would bring Vale's landed costs around the same as BHP and Rio's.

Vale also has a 25-year shipping agreement with China Cosco to transport iron ore from Brazil to China. China has gone another step further too, loaning Vale US$4 billion to help fund a US$16.5 billion project, known as S11D.

S11D is expected to produce 90 million tonnes of very high quality iron ore each year, taking Vale's production to 450 million tonnes of iron ore within the next few years.

In two moves, China has decreased its dependence on BHP and Rio, loosening their control over the iron ore market, and thanks to the increase supply of iron ore, achieved lower prices.

One last dance?

Fairfax Media reports today that Chinese-linked companies have applied to the Foreign Investment Review Board seeking permission for an investment with Australia's self-styled 'new force in iron ore' Fortescue Metals Group.

Fortescue, with its US$7.7 billion in net debt, could strengthen its balance sheet with a capital injection, either to pay down debt in return for an equity stake, or refinance existing debt at lower rates. The miner recently issued US$2.3 billion in senior secured notes, but is paying a whopping 9.75 pe cent interest rate, at a time when interest rates around the world are at record low levels.

Fortescue could struggle to repay its debt load if iron ore prices continue to trade at or under US$60 per tonne, with some estimates putting the miner's breakeven price around US$70 per tonne. The company may well be amenable to a deal with the Chinese, particularly after the recent kerfuffle over the iron ore inquiry that was going ahead, but was cancelled.

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Atlas Iron Maintains Production at Two Out of Three Mines

Atlas Iron Maintains Production at Two Out of Three Mines

Iron ore miner Atlas has reversed its decision to mothball all of its operations, temporarily at least.

Three weeks ago the miner announced production would cease by the end of April at all three of its sites in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

At the time Atlas said the decision had been forced by falling iron ore prices, despite considerable cost cutting.

But today Atlas advised the ASX mining will continue throughout May at two of the three sites.

Production will continue at the Abydos site and be resumed shortly at Wodgina, though mining and processing will remain suspended at Mt Webber.

The announcement is expected to give a reprieve to around 400 of the 600 workers affected by the original decision.

"The decision to continue operating at these projects ... is the result of a substantial reduction in forecast cash costs for May," Atlas said in its statement to the ASX on the decision.

"The cost reductions were achieved with the support of Atlas' key service providers."

Iron ore prices have recovered from under $US50 a tonne when the suspension was announced to as high as $US59.20 a tonne earlier this week.

The price has since backtracked a little to $US56.20 a tonne.

"Atlas expects to be cash flow-positive in May," today's ASX statement said.

"This is based on target all-in cash costs plus interest and sustaining capital expense."

But Atlas shares remain suspended and the company has given no indication of its intentions beyond this month.
Hopefully they continue, workers get a reprieve: CFMEU

CFMEU mining and resources division secretary Gary Wood said any reprieve for the workers was helpful in an industry where jobs were becoming rare.

"Obviously it's a positive in the shorter term and one can only hope there's an increase in [the iron ore] price to make it a sustainable operation," he said.

"It is a positive and hopefully they can continue and the workers do get that reprieve because there's no opportunities out there in the field at this time.

"I think they would have been running as efficiently as they can so it all comes back down to the price of ore."

Regional Development Australia (RDA) Pilbara chief Diane Pentz said she remained concerned about the number of people who had been retrenched.

She said the mining company's announcement was a "bright light" that was welcomed by the RDA Pilbara and by people in the community.

"I'm sure that it's a relief to a lot of people who are employed within this resource industry and I think it also starts to signal that there is some confidence around the recovery of the iron ore price," Ms Pentz said.

Rio Tinto Goes Full Ore Ahead

Rio Tinto has revealed it shipped 72.5 million tonnes of iron ore from its Pilbara mines during the three months to March

CYCLONE season and a train derailment have slowed Rio Tinto’s iron ore business but the mining titan’s expansion plans remain firmly in place.

The Anglo-Australian miner has revealed it shipped 72.5 million tonnes of iron ore from its Pilbara mines during the three months to March.

The result, revealed in a production update on Tuesday, was 12 per cent lower than the previous quarter but 9 per cent higher than the same period a year earlier.

Rio produced 74.7 million tonnes of iron ore for the March quarter with the difference going into stockpiles.

Production was down 6 per cent on the previous quarter but up 12 per cent year-on-year.

The result missed market expectations but analysts were unfazed as Rio maintained its full-year production forecast at a record 350 million tonnes and said it would draw down on inventories to maximise cash flow throughout the year.

Rio said its operations had been impacted by tropical ­cyclone Olwyn, which battered the West Australian coast last month, and a train derailment that temporarily blocked ­access to Dampier port.

Smaller competitors such as Fortescue have been deeply critical of Rio and rival BHP Billiton for continuing to bring on new supply as the price of the key steelmaking ingredient tumbles.

Chief executive Sam Walsh said Rio’s push to milk as many low-cost tonnes from its iron ore business as possible was in the best interests of shareholders over the long term.

“By making best use of our high-quality assets, low cost base, and operating and commercial capability our aim is to protect our margins in the face of declining prices and maximise returns for shareholders throughout the cycle,” he said.

The price of iron ore rose 1.3 per cent to $US51.57 a tonne early on Tuesday after hitting a decade low of $US47.08 a tonne in early April.

Rio produced 144,000 tonnes of copper during the March quarter — a 9 per cent drop on the same time a year earlier due to mining lower grades.

Rio shares closed up 1.5 per cent on Tuesday at $55.50

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BC Iron to Cut Costs as Iron Ore Prices Tumble

BC Iron to Cut Costs as Iron Ore Prices Tumble

Australia's smaller iron ore miners are struggling to keep their heads above water as the price of the steel-making commodity hits a fresh post-global financial crisis low.

The price of Australia's biggest export fell more than two per cent to $US52.90 overnight following a four per cent fall the previous day.

Junior and mid-tier miners are having to reassess their costs as the world's biggest iron ore miners continue flooding the market despite a softening in Chinese demand.

Morgan Ball, the chief executive of junior Pilbara producer BC Iron, says his company is planning more cost reductions after recently meeting with Chinese steel mills.

"Clearly there is a significant supply influx still to come primarily out of Vale and Roy Hill in the short-term and that's why we're setting our business up for a couple of years, but we think we can operate through that," Mr Ball told AAP.

"We have more costs to take out of the business that will help us through this period."

Mr Ball said there were no plans to make further cuts to staff as he keeps a close eye on how many Chinese domestic mines re-open after winter.

Still, there could be some support for the iron ore price after China's central bank eased restrictions on down-payments for second homes and cut taxes to boost its housing market.

"It all helps," Mr Ball said.

"I think we'll see more of those kind of initiatives."

He added that mills and traders in China, India and Indonesia would prefer to deal with more than two or three companies.

Fortescue Metal's chairman Andrew Forrest last week called for a cap on iron ore production, sparking an investigation by the competition watchdog the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

ACCC chairman Rod Sims will focus on cartel conduct in government procurement and in the commodities market, particularly iron ore in the year ahead.

"Mr Forrest has helpfully made that an important issue for us," Mr Sims told a business briefing in Perth.

"As someone who has been watching the mining industry for 40 years, I'm staggered that people don't realise that prices go up, people invest, production comes on, prices go down."

But he said it was hard to prove an attempt to illegally cap production.

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Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Why Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Economists may teach that low prices and declining demand encourage producers to decrease supply, but the iron ore industry appears to have skipped class that day.

"The combination of a further increase in global iron ore supply this year and only subdued demand growth suggests iron ore prices will continue to drift lower," said Caroline Bain, an analyst at Capital Economics, in a note Monday. She forecasts iron ore prices at $60 a tonne by year-end, with risks to the downside. Iron ore touched a more than five-year low Monday of around $63.30 a tonne, although some forward contracts are already pricing it under $60.

Output has picked up over the past few years, encouraged by expectations China demand would continue to post strong growth and by low production costs in Australia and Brazil, she said. She noted Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton put their average production cost in Pilbara, where most of Australia's iron-ore production is located, at around $25 a tonne, compared with 2010-13 average market prices at $145 a tonne. Even at current prices, these producers are still profitable, Bain noted. Australia is the world's second-largest iron-ore producer after China.

Despite 2014's around 50 percent decline in iron ore prices, the big four producers -- Vale (Sao Paulo Stock Exchange: VALE'A-BR), Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue (ASX:FMG-AU) - continue to expand production and other companies are also bringing projects on line this year, she said, forecasting Australian production will rise 6 percent this year, although that's down from 2014's 20 percent rise.

Don't count on China

At the same time, despite China producers' higher costs and lower ore grades, production there isn't likely to see much slowdown, especially as many steel plants have "vertically integrated" operations, owning mines nearby, Bain said. Closures on the mainland are likely to focus on less efficient operations, leading to a leaner and meaner industry there, she said.

"The multinational producers will be only partially successful in their bid to oust higher-cost producers globally and oversupply will continue to weigh on prices," she said. At the same time, China's iron ore usage will stagnate at best, hit by a combination of high inventories and lower demand to use the metal as part of financing deals, she said.

Goldman Sachs also expects iron ore producers won't be able to count on China for growth, noting it's become a mature market.

"The decade-long love affair between China and iron ore is cooling. Chinese steel consumption has increased to unsustainable levels and is bound to decline," it said in a note Friday. "Significant overinvestment to date will ensure that the market is well supplied."

It expects a "long war of attrition" will be needed to balance the market, cutting its long-term price forecast by 25 percent to $60 a tonne.

The Oil Effect

Falling oil prices are also set to weigh on iron ore prices, as they result in "substantial cost reductions", and commodity prices are likely to fall to meet these new lower levels, Citigroup said in a note Monday.

It's also concerned about oil-fueled deflationary pressures affecting commodity demand. 

"Falling prices increase the real cost of debt repayments and could see increased defaults. This not only affects direct commodity demand, but also drives lower inventories and threatens commodity financing trade," it said, noting that falling commodity prices also leave companies with little incentive to build up inventories.

In a note earlier this month, the bank cut its 2015 iron ore price forecast to $58 a tonne from $65

Australian Mining Boom Peak Years Away

THE government's efforts to talk up the longevity of the mining boom will be boosted today by an influential report that predicts mining industry investment is still several years away from peaking. 

And the report by economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel predicts other sectors of the economy will lift to fill the gap when the mining sector inevitably slows.

A series of cabinet ministers insisted yesterday the mining boom had further to run, in an attempt to counter fears of a slowdown after BHP Billiton's decision last week to shelve its $30 billion Olympic Dam expansion and Resource Minister Martin Ferguson's controversial declaration that the boom was over.

Against a dreary outlook for the prices of Australia's key exports, BIS Shrapnel believes the value of contracted resource projects means mining investment would not peak until 2014, with Queensland and Western Australia tied up with major projects for three to five years.

"After that, non-mining investment will stabilise and start to pick up, taking over as the engine of growth and smoothing the transition," says the BIS report, to be released today.

It suggests lower interest rates will boost retail spending, which had been held back by low confidence and weak demand rather than the Australian dollar.

"Over time, capacity constraints outside mining, such as those already evident in the construction sector, will prompt a broadening of investment beyond mining," it says.

Frank Gelber, chief economist at BIS Shrapnel, said the realisation that the investment mining boom was finite would cause people to "overreact on the pessimistic side".

"All of a sudden, the glass seems to have become one-quarter full, but nothing has changed," he told The Australian in a reference to Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens's optimistic glass-half-full depiction of Australia's economy.

"Our report aims to dispel some of the panicky discussion about the end of the boom," Mr Gelber said, predicting economic growth of 3 per cent this year and next.

BIS Shrapnel believes continued strong commodity prices will keep the Australian dollar high "for a few more years", putting pressure on other trade-exposed industries.

Trade Minister Craig Emerson said yesterday the mining boom was not even halfway through, while Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten noted that his department was projecting that another 100,000 jobs would be created in the mining industry over the next five years.

"Mr Ferguson is right: we might have reached the peak in prices, but volumes are still increasing and there are still plenty of projects," Mr Shorten said, attempting to paper over any divisions in cabinet.
"I don't think that the contribution that mining is going to make in jobs and economic output for Australia has at all peaked." Wayne Swan said the mining boom was better understood "as a series of booms - a boom in prices, a boom in investment and a boom in exports".

The Treasurer said that while the price boom had passed its peak, "the investment boom still has some way to run" and the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics had forecast commodity export earnings to reach a record $209 billion this financial year as higher volumes offset lower prices.

JPMorgan chief China economist Haibin Zhu, visiting Sydney last week, told Sky Business's Australian Business on Friday night Chinese demand for Australia's resources would slow but remain at a very high level over the next five to 10 years.

"What follows the recent boom is going to be far from a bust," he said, pointing out the Chinese government was intent on stabilising the country's growth at a lower but more stable level.
He warned that China's one-child policy would sap its potential economic growth rate by about one-quarter within the next five to 10 years.

"The share of working-age people in the population is shrinking and the number of workers will start to decline in the next few years," he said.

Mr Gelber also dismissed the impact of the carbon tax on BHP's decision to shelve its Olympic Dam copper, gold and uranium mine expansion, arguing it would go ahead once construction costs eased. "Such a long-term project means it is hard to predict ultimate prices and demand," he said.

Mr Swan said he was "pleased" to see discussion about the longevity of the mining boom. "But behaving as if the investment pipeline has suddenly run dry is not only false, it's irresponsible," he said, pointing out the Reserve Bank governor had said mining investment would not peak for a few years yet.