Buru Energy Looks to Brighter Future with Ungani

Almost four years since it first made the discovery, Buru Energy, and partner Mitsubishi, officially opened the Ungani oil field 100km east of Broome today.

In what the company hopes will be the trigger in a change of fortunes after a tough 12-month period, Buru will produce of 1250 barrels of oil a day at the site with the aim rising to 3000.

Buru received production licences from the Department of Mines and Petroleum in May, following on from the green light it received from traditional owners in April.

However the collapsing oil price put a serious dent in its ambitions for a big-ticket exploration program in the largely untapped onshore Canning Basin, where Ungani sits.

Ungani has produced about 450,000 barrels during two extended production tests spanning two years, with oil trucked to Wyndham for export to refineries. Production flow rates have been capped at 1250 barrels a day.

Buru chairman Eric Streitberg said Ungani was the first oil development in the Canning Basin in over 30 years.

“There was no modern precedent for the development and it took perseverance and co-operation between all the parties to make the transition from a greenfields oil discovery to the current production system,” Mr Streitberg.

Chinese Nickel Imports Jump to 6-Year High as Shortage Looms

Chinese Nickel Imports Jump to 6-Year High as Shortage Looms

China imported the most refined nickel in six years in a further sign that the world’s biggest consumer is drawing on global supply. Futures rose 2.4 percent in London.

Inbound shipments of the metal used to produce stainless steel surged 67 percent to 38,545 tons in June from the previous month, the highest since July 2009, and were more than three times the level a year earlier, Chinese customs data show.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. are bullish on prices amid prospects for rising Chinese demand. Macquarie Group Ltd. sees a global shortage which may cut inventories further from a record. Stockpiles in London Metal Exchange sheds have already fallen to the lowest in almost two months. Some imports may have been for delivery against the first nickel contract to expire on the Shanghai bourse, said Celia Wang from Tianjin Zhongwei Group’s investment department.


“Huge imports arrived in China from LME warehouses as traders seek profits by delivering against the first settlement of a Shanghai nickel futures contract,” said Wang, the general manager. “Refined nickel imports are expected to remain at a high level into July.”

The Shanghai Futures Exchange started nickel trading in March and the July contract was the first expiry. The bourse is accepting metal from Moscow-based OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel, the top supplier, for settlement to ease concern about shortages.
Goldman, Citigroup

Prices climbed 2.4 percent to $11,980 a ton in London on Tuesday, the highest level since July 6, before trading at $11,875. Goldman expects rates to increase to $14,000 as the market heads toward a deficit next year, analysts including Yubin Fu wrote in a report dated July 6. Citigroup predicts a 2015 average price of $13,960 and maintains a bullish outlook.

Imports of ferronickel rose more than threefold on year to 62,511 tons, another sign China is seeking foreign supply.

An Indonesian ban on exports of nickel ore at the start of 2014 spurred China to stockpile the material and boost supplies from the Philippines, the only other major source. Inventories of nickel ore in China are now at their lowest since September 2011, according to data from Beijing Custeel E-Commerce Co.

China imported more than 100,000 tons of refined nickel in the first half for the first time since 2009 when buyers took advantage of a slump in demand after the financial crisis.

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China's Revenge Serves Body Blows to BHP and Rio

China's revenge serves body blows to BHP and Rio

It's taken six years, but China is slowly turning the tables on the heavyweight iron ore miners.

In 2009, iron ore giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto decided they wanted to take advantage of China's soaring demand for iron ore, which was pushing prices ever higher. So they ditched the 40-year old system of setting annual contract prices in favour of using spot pricing for the majority of their iron ore shipped to China from 2010.

Needless to say, China's steel mills weren't very happy about that. BHP's previous CEO Marius Kloppers is widely acknowledged as the man most responsible for bringing about the change. With BHP and Rio filling a huge amount of China's demand, the steelmakers had little choice but to acquiesce.

The changes, and China's thirst for iron ore, saw the iron ore price soar as high as US$191 per tonne in February 2011, from around US$60 per tonne in 2008. Rio Tinto produced record underlying earnings of US$15.5 billion in the 2011 financial year, with iron ore contributing US$12.9 billion. BHP, for its part, saw net profit rise 74 per cent to US$21.7 billion as revenues rose 36 per cent.

China may also still be sore over aluminium giant Chinalco's aborted US$19.5 billion investment in Rio Tinto back in 2010, which was aimed at gaining resource security. At the time, reports suggest Chinese officials feared that China was too vulnerable to both Rio and BHP, even separately. Rio's board canned the deal, and announced that it was instead forming an iron ore joint venture with BHP. That deal never went ahead – much to the relief of China.

The giant (re)awakens

But China has never forgotten, and appears unlikely to forgive. Now the sleeping giant has awakened, and looks set to turn the tables on Rio and BHP.

Firstly, China needed to loosen its dependence on the two Australian iron ore miners, so it has turned to Brazil's Vale. For many years Vale was snubbed by the Chinese. The iron ore giant had built a number of very large ore carriers to ship ore to China, but they have been banned from docking at Chinese ports since 2012.

Now, China hasn't just removed the restrictions but Vale has also sold 4 of the ore carriers to two of China's biggest shipping companies. Each carrier can transport up to 400,000 tonnes of iron ore, and could reduce Vale's production costs by as much as 25 per cent, according to some estimates. That would bring Vale's landed costs around the same as BHP and Rio's.

Vale also has a 25-year shipping agreement with China Cosco to transport iron ore from Brazil to China. China has gone another step further too, loaning Vale US$4 billion to help fund a US$16.5 billion project, known as S11D.

S11D is expected to produce 90 million tonnes of very high quality iron ore each year, taking Vale's production to 450 million tonnes of iron ore within the next few years.

In two moves, China has decreased its dependence on BHP and Rio, loosening their control over the iron ore market, and thanks to the increase supply of iron ore, achieved lower prices.

One last dance?

Fairfax Media reports today that Chinese-linked companies have applied to the Foreign Investment Review Board seeking permission for an investment with Australia's self-styled 'new force in iron ore' Fortescue Metals Group.

Fortescue, with its US$7.7 billion in net debt, could strengthen its balance sheet with a capital injection, either to pay down debt in return for an equity stake, or refinance existing debt at lower rates. The miner recently issued US$2.3 billion in senior secured notes, but is paying a whopping 9.75 pe cent interest rate, at a time when interest rates around the world are at record low levels.

Fortescue could struggle to repay its debt load if iron ore prices continue to trade at or under US$60 per tonne, with some estimates putting the miner's breakeven price around US$70 per tonne. The company may well be amenable to a deal with the Chinese, particularly after the recent kerfuffle over the iron ore inquiry that was going ahead, but was cancelled.

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Metal Prices Aid Glencore’s Chances with Rio Tinto

The biggest, most complex mining deal ever broached could boil down to a simple ratio: the price of copper versus the price of iron ore.

Glencore PLC, the Swiss mining giant with massive copper holdings, last year proposed a roughly $US150 billion merger with Rio Tinto PLC, among the world’s biggest producers of iron ore. Glencore’s announcement that Rio rebuffed the bid on October 7 set off a six-month moratorium under UK law from another approach.

That cooling-off period ends tomorrow, potentially opening the door to more talks. The two miners had never publicly disclosed potential terms, and Rio (RIO) executives haven’t encouraged new talks.

But two factors have swung in Glencore’s favour that could encourage a deal creating the world’s largest mining company and give investors exposure to every major commodity.

Glencore’s shares are up more than 15 per cent since mid-January, when they briefly hit their lowest level since the company went public in 2011 amid a decline in copper prices, while Rio’s have dipped 3 per cent.

A big reason for the divergence: Ironore prices have continued their long decline from highs of $US190 a tonne reached in 2011, recently hitting a 10-year low below $US50 a tonne. Copper prices, meanwhile, have rebounded by about 5 per cent to just north of $US6,000 a tonne in the past month.

Industry experts also don’t expect to see a recovery in the price of iron ore, a primary steelmaking ingredient, anytime soon. Caroline Bain, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, last month forecast that iron-ore prices are likely to hit $US45 a tonne by year-end as large surpluses of iron-ore continue to flood into the market and Chinese demand cools.

Such declines have been driven by unrelenting increase in iron ore production from Rio Tinto and its competitors such as BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA. If production isn’t curbed, prices could continue to fall, analysts say.

“Sooner or later either (Rio is) going to have to back away from the volume-growth strategy, or they’re going to have to face the prospect that their earnings are going to fall through the floor,” said Sanford C. Bernstein mining analyst Paul Gait. If Rio’s earnings keep falling and its share price suffers, “they’re going to be vulnerable to Glencore, “ he said.

Rio Tinto chief executive Sam Walsh has repeatedly said he isn’t interested in a deal with Glencore. At a February event in London, Mr Walsh said bluntly the merger “isn’t going to happen,” indicating he thought Glencore couldn’t pay a high-enough price.

Glencore’s shares have lost about one-fourth of their value since last July, when its chief executive, Ivan Glasenberg, placed a call to Rio Tinto Chairman Jan du Plessis to discuss a potential merger. Since Glencore would need to offer shares as part of the deal, the math has become significantly more daunting for Mr Glasenberg.

Glencore also is heavily exposed to the price of coal, which has stumbled for similar reasons to iron ore. Plus, any deal would face strict scrutiny from antitrust authorities in the UK and Australia, where Rio Tinto is based.

One of Glencore’s main hurdles in executing a Rio Tinto deal is its debt-heavy balance sheet. Glencore had $US30.5 billion in net debt at the end of 2014, compared with Rio’s $US12.5 billion in debt. That puts Glencore’s leverage ratio — net debt divided by the sum of debt and total equity — at about 40 per cent, roughly twice the leverage at Rio Tinto.

That could put a cap on how much more debt Glencore can take on to fund a Rio bid. More debt could threaten its credit ratings, putting pressure on its trading arm, which relies on leverage to fuel its operations.

In Glencore’s favour are rebounding copper prices, which could help push its share price higher. Mr Gait of Sanford C. Bernstein expects copper and other factors to help lift Glencore’s share price to nearly double where it currently stands.

Perhaps the biggest wildcard is China. China’s state-owned aluminium company, Chinalco, is Rio Tinto’s biggest shareholder. It has seen the value of its 9.8 per cent stake in the company cut roughly in half since it made the investment in 2008. Rio in 2009 rebuffed a bid by Chinalco to double its stake, which would have given it a seat on Rio’s board.

Those factors have brewed tensions with Chinalco, potentially leaving Beijing open to new leadership at Rio Tinto, said Michael Komesaroff, a long-time analyst of China and natural-resource trends.

A person who picked up the phone at Chinalco’s Beijing office said nobody was available for comment over the weekend, which was also a holiday in China.

Glencore in its 2013 merger with Xstrata proved it could bargain with the Chinese, getting Beijing’s approval for the deal in part by agreeing to sell its Las Bambas Peruvian copper project to a Chinese consortium.

China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper, is unlikely to have lost its appetite for ownership of copper mines, analysts say. One option for Glencore would be to offer to sell one of Rio’s prized copper mining assets, such as its 30 per cent stake in Chile’s Escondida mine.

“If the Chinese want to make it happen, it’s more than likely going to happen,” said Mr Komesaroff said.

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BC Iron to Cut Costs as Iron Ore Prices Tumble

BC Iron to Cut Costs as Iron Ore Prices Tumble

Australia's smaller iron ore miners are struggling to keep their heads above water as the price of the steel-making commodity hits a fresh post-global financial crisis low.

The price of Australia's biggest export fell more than two per cent to $US52.90 overnight following a four per cent fall the previous day.

Junior and mid-tier miners are having to reassess their costs as the world's biggest iron ore miners continue flooding the market despite a softening in Chinese demand.

Morgan Ball, the chief executive of junior Pilbara producer BC Iron, says his company is planning more cost reductions after recently meeting with Chinese steel mills.

"Clearly there is a significant supply influx still to come primarily out of Vale and Roy Hill in the short-term and that's why we're setting our business up for a couple of years, but we think we can operate through that," Mr Ball told AAP.

"We have more costs to take out of the business that will help us through this period."

Mr Ball said there were no plans to make further cuts to staff as he keeps a close eye on how many Chinese domestic mines re-open after winter.

Still, there could be some support for the iron ore price after China's central bank eased restrictions on down-payments for second homes and cut taxes to boost its housing market.

"It all helps," Mr Ball said.

"I think we'll see more of those kind of initiatives."

He added that mills and traders in China, India and Indonesia would prefer to deal with more than two or three companies.

Fortescue Metal's chairman Andrew Forrest last week called for a cap on iron ore production, sparking an investigation by the competition watchdog the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.

ACCC chairman Rod Sims will focus on cartel conduct in government procurement and in the commodities market, particularly iron ore in the year ahead.

"Mr Forrest has helpfully made that an important issue for us," Mr Sims told a business briefing in Perth.

"As someone who has been watching the mining industry for 40 years, I'm staggered that people don't realise that prices go up, people invest, production comes on, prices go down."

But he said it was hard to prove an attempt to illegally cap production.

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BHP Defends Iron Strategy as Good for Australia Amid Surplus

BHP Defends Iron Strategy as Good for Australia Amid Surplus


BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, defended its strategy of boosting iron ore supplies at a time of falling prices, saying a focus on raising output and efficiency was aiding Australia’s competitiveness.

Production from its operations in Western Australia was a record 124 million metric tons in the first half, and may reach 245 million tons in the 2015 financial year, BHP said in a statement on Tuesday as Jimmy Wilson, head of its iron ore business, addressed a conference in Perth. The company is on track to achieve unit cash costs below $20 a ton, BHP said.

“With this strategy, we are maintaining Australia’s competitive position in the global market and providing the revenue, royalties, employment and innovation that is so important for this country’s future,” said Wilson.

Iron ore sank 47 percent in 2014 and extended losses this year as surging low-cost supplies from BHP, Rio Tinto Group and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd., Australia’s top producers, outpaced demand growth, spurring a surplus just as China slowed. The slump hurt government revenues in Australia, the world’s biggest shipper, while squeezing smaller producers. Iron ore may find a floor at about $50 a ton, Citigroup Inc. told the conference.

“We have no major projects in execution and our growth pathway will be achieved by continuing to make our existing infrastructure more productive,” said Wilson. BHP anticipated the increased supply of seaborne ore and approved the last of its major capital investments in the Pilbara in 2011, it said.

Lower Prices

Ore with 62 percent content at Qingdao fell 1.5 percent to $58.58 a dry ton on Monday, declining for a fifth day, according to data from Metal Bulletin Ltd. That’s the lowest price since at least May 2008, when Metal Bulletin started compiling weekly prices. The commodity is 18 percent lower this year.

“Is there any chance the major producers will reassess and downgrade their plans, given where the price is? We think not,” Laura Brooks, a senior consultant at CRU Group, told the conference. “One reason for this is that competitive pressure is driving producers to seek cost reductions, and volume is critical if unit costs are to be cut.”

Rio Chief Executive Officer Sam Walsh said last month that if his company reduced output, forfeited supply would be made up by higher-cost competitors, adding that producers made decisions independently. The London-based company, which mines in the ore-rich Pilbara region, is on track to deliver 330 million tons of output by 2015 and 350 million tons by 2017, Iron Ore Chief Executive Andrew Harding said at the at conference.

Rio’s View

“The broader Pilbara shows that from January 2011 to December 2014 inclusive, 248 million new tons entered the market from Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and FMG,” Harding said. Of that increase, “Rio Tinto accounted for 63 million tons, or 25 percent. As you know, some would like you to believe that Rio Tinto has had the largest volume increase in that time. But as you can see, this is simply not the case.”

The global surplus will surge to 437 million tons in 2018 from 184 million tons this year, Morgan Stanley said on Feb. 22. Global seaborne supply is projected to increase 4.6 percent in 2015, topping the 3 percent growth in demand, according to the bank, which sees iron ore averaging $79 a ton this year.

There’s a floor for prices at about $50 a ton, Citigroup Iron Ore & Steel Head Mark Lyons said at the conference. At current prices, an estimated 38 percent of global output isn’t generating cash, according to CRU

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Atlas Iron shares Exploded Today

Shares in Australian resources company Atlas Iron soared today, trading up more than 20%.

The miner, whose share price has been hit by falling iron ore prices in recent months, was on a cracking run this afternoon hitting $0.203 a share a short time ago.


Assisting the rally was the higher iron ore price which was up 1.2% to $63.18 a tonne overnight.


This is the chart.



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Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Why Iron Ore Won't Rebound Any Time Soon

Economists may teach that low prices and declining demand encourage producers to decrease supply, but the iron ore industry appears to have skipped class that day.

"The combination of a further increase in global iron ore supply this year and only subdued demand growth suggests iron ore prices will continue to drift lower," said Caroline Bain, an analyst at Capital Economics, in a note Monday. She forecasts iron ore prices at $60 a tonne by year-end, with risks to the downside. Iron ore touched a more than five-year low Monday of around $63.30 a tonne, although some forward contracts are already pricing it under $60.

Output has picked up over the past few years, encouraged by expectations China demand would continue to post strong growth and by low production costs in Australia and Brazil, she said. She noted Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton put their average production cost in Pilbara, where most of Australia's iron-ore production is located, at around $25 a tonne, compared with 2010-13 average market prices at $145 a tonne. Even at current prices, these producers are still profitable, Bain noted. Australia is the world's second-largest iron-ore producer after China.

Despite 2014's around 50 percent decline in iron ore prices, the big four producers -- Vale (Sao Paulo Stock Exchange: VALE'A-BR), Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue (ASX:FMG-AU) - continue to expand production and other companies are also bringing projects on line this year, she said, forecasting Australian production will rise 6 percent this year, although that's down from 2014's 20 percent rise.

Don't count on China

At the same time, despite China producers' higher costs and lower ore grades, production there isn't likely to see much slowdown, especially as many steel plants have "vertically integrated" operations, owning mines nearby, Bain said. Closures on the mainland are likely to focus on less efficient operations, leading to a leaner and meaner industry there, she said.

"The multinational producers will be only partially successful in their bid to oust higher-cost producers globally and oversupply will continue to weigh on prices," she said. At the same time, China's iron ore usage will stagnate at best, hit by a combination of high inventories and lower demand to use the metal as part of financing deals, she said.

Goldman Sachs also expects iron ore producers won't be able to count on China for growth, noting it's become a mature market.

"The decade-long love affair between China and iron ore is cooling. Chinese steel consumption has increased to unsustainable levels and is bound to decline," it said in a note Friday. "Significant overinvestment to date will ensure that the market is well supplied."

It expects a "long war of attrition" will be needed to balance the market, cutting its long-term price forecast by 25 percent to $60 a tonne.

The Oil Effect

Falling oil prices are also set to weigh on iron ore prices, as they result in "substantial cost reductions", and commodity prices are likely to fall to meet these new lower levels, Citigroup said in a note Monday.

It's also concerned about oil-fueled deflationary pressures affecting commodity demand. 

"Falling prices increase the real cost of debt repayments and could see increased defaults. This not only affects direct commodity demand, but also drives lower inventories and threatens commodity financing trade," it said, noting that falling commodity prices also leave companies with little incentive to build up inventories.

In a note earlier this month, the bank cut its 2015 iron ore price forecast to $58 a tonne from $65

Ten Mining Stocks That Look Set To Rebound

Mining stocks have taken the brunt of the walloping on the sharemarket but the selling is largely indiscriminate, prompting many people to ask whether some resource stocks are oversold.

There are reasons to be wary though, as 334 miners have a weak cash balance, below $2 million – a level which usually rings alarm bells.

While E.I.M. Capital Managers director Tony Wiggins believes the sector is littered with value traps, he says “special situation” resource companies have potential.

These are miners that face corporate activity (such as those involved in takeovers) or close to achieving a significant milestone (such as making the transition from explorer to producer or reaching full-production capacity).

Experts speaking to The Australian Financial Review this week nominated the following 10 mining stocks as best placed to rebound in the coming months.

Sundance Resources (SDL)

The Africa-focused iron ore hopeful is one that fits the “special situations” bill well, Wiggins says. It’s been on a wild ride since Chinese shareholder Hanlong Mining Group made a takeover bid last year. But doubts about Hanlong’s ability to finance the takeover have cast a long shadow over Sundance Resources.
While Hanlong eventually secured financier commitment letters from two banks, the market is sceptical and the stock is trading well under the offer price of 45¢ a share.

“There’s a very low chance of the deal falling over now,” Tony Wiggins says. “People won’t believe it until the deal is consummated.” By then, however, the opportunity would have been lost.

Pluton Resources (PLV)

Scepticism is also dragging heavily on fellow iron ore miner Pluton Resources. Investors lost faith due to lengthy delays in securing finance for its acquisition of the Cockatoo Island project.

When Pluton completes its first iron ore shipment from Cockatoo, Wiggins says, it will convert the disbelievers. The project has no infrastructure issues and has a free-on-board cost of just $51 a tonne of iron ore before state royalties.

Kalnorth Gold Mines (KGM)

Set to transition from an explorer to a producer by February, this is another resource stock that will probably get a re-rating as its risk profile decreases.

Kalnorth has managed the transition well, having struck a deal with St Barbara to use its ore-processing mill rather than funding its own.

“What investors are getting is positive cash flow from early next year and no more dilution [from capital raisings],” says Wiggins.

Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR)

The gold sector is a good place to be hunting for oversold bargains as economic conditions support the precious metal, Phillip Resources Fund’s chief investment officer, Chris Bain, says.

Gold producers with the biggest rebound potential, however, are likely to be those that can rein in ballooning costs in the December quarter.

“Saracen’s costs did blow out substantially but they’ve now got the credit facility in place for their expansion, their [ore] grades are improving and they seem to have costs under control,” Bain says.

If Saracen can control rising costs over the next two quarters, the stock is likely to find a 30 per cent or so upside, he predicts.

Saracen’s cash cost in the past quarter was about $900 an ounce of gold compared to $700-plus an ounce only a year ago.

Perseus Mining (PRU)

Having lost more than 20 per cent of its share price value over the past six weeks, Perseus Mining could rebound if the Sissingué gold project gets going in the Ivory Coast, Bain says. Political issues have dogged the project but the sell-off doesn’t seem to be justified given management’s delivery on promises and quality assets.

Silver Lake Resources (SLR)

Another goldminer whose stock has fallen about 20 per cent, Silver Lake Resources, is very much in the same category as Perseus.

A weaker than expected September quarter production result was one of the key drivers of its poor performance, says Troy Irvin, director of investment house Argonaut.

But, he says, its Mt Monger mine is “operationally sound with substantial productivity gains leading to higher volumes”.

Irvin favours Silver Lake’s acquisition of Integra Mining as it instantly makes the miner a producer of 250,000 ounces of gold a year, with the Murchison development project giving it potential to grow production to 400,000 ounces.

Argonaut has a “buy” recommendation on the stock and a price target of $4.40.

Troy Resources (TRY)

The South American-focused gold and copper producer is another of Irvin’s picks. Persistent sovereign risk concerns and cost inflation in Argentina had sparked a 14 per cent sell-off in the stock since early October.
News of a cost blowout at Barrick’s nearby Pascua Lama project in Chile is adding to anxiety. While Troy clearly has its challenges, the miner’s project is a high ore grade and high-margin proposition.

Further, Troy has a frugal capital structure with only 91 million shares on issue, and an enviable 13-year track record of paying dividends. Argonaut is urging investors to “buy” the stock with a $5.80 price target.

Tiger Resources (TGS)

It’s not only gold that is glittering. LimeStreet Capital believes the outlook for copper is also promising due to the lack of any significant new copper projects.

Tiger Resources could be an inviting takeover target by the big copper producers, according to LimeStreet.
Tiger has plunged 26 per cent this year, which seems excessive given strong cash flow and big earnings growth potential for 2012-13.

Rex Minerals (REX)

The junior copper-gold explorer is a riskier proposition, but Chris Bain thinks that it’s worth the punt following the 44 per cent collapse in its share price since January.

While Rex’s South Australian prospects look promising, it will need around $700 million to fund development work.

That’s a tough ask for a junior with a market capitalisation of about $150 million.

“They have a lot of hard work to do, but the asset is there, it’s valuable and it will become a mine,” Bain says.

“It’s a matter of whether the market is kind enough to let them raise the capital or someone says ‘I’ll have that thanks’.”

Rex did a capital raising not too long ago at $1.20 and the stock is trading around 80¢. Many investors are still hurting.

Mirabela Nickel (MBN)

While it seems counter intuitive for anyone to bat for Mirabela Nickel given the challenging outlook for nickel, Troy Irvin thinks that the risk has been more than factored into the miner’s share price after the stock shed two-thirds of its value in 12 months.

While nickel prices are hovering around a three-year low on concerns that the market is oversupplied, Mirabela’s operations are improving.

Its Santa Rita mine in Brazil, for example, has recorded consecutive improvement in its quarterly performance.

The miner has also completed a recent expansion and cost-cutting is starting to deliver results.

Mirabela is still profitable at current nickel prices and Irvin believes that it offers “unrivalled leverage” to any rebound in nickel prices.

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Bullion Miners Facing Tough Challenges

A new report from the world's largest gold producer Barrick Gold provides yet another illustration of the problems facing gold mining companies.

In South Africa, extraction of gold from depths of more than 6,000 meters has almost become the rule rather than the exception. Mining costs are being pushed up by the logistical challenges of drilling at great depths, as well as an increasingly militant work force which is demanding higher wages. Add exploration costs to this mix and it’s little wonder that companies’ profits are being squeezed, despite the high gold price. According to Barrick, total production costs for all mining companies exceeded the $8 billion mark last year.

While 1991 saw the discovery of 11 new gold mines, in 2011 only three mines with production potential were found. Aside from the drop in gold ore and rising production costs, a third factor is increasingly hindering gold production: producing countries' tedious licensing processes and sluggish bureaucracy. According to Barrick Gold, this is being exacerbated by increasing environmental regulations that could jeopardize many mining operations.

Many companies are also facing increasing hostility from residents in mining areas. This has been particularly evident in Peru, Bolivia or Ecuador – where there have been violent clashes between local people and police.

This is a  tricky set of factors for many companies. But given the gains in gold many expect in the coming years, great fortunes could still be made in the right gold mining investments.

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Australian Mining Boom Peak Years Away

THE government's efforts to talk up the longevity of the mining boom will be boosted today by an influential report that predicts mining industry investment is still several years away from peaking. 

And the report by economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel predicts other sectors of the economy will lift to fill the gap when the mining sector inevitably slows.

A series of cabinet ministers insisted yesterday the mining boom had further to run, in an attempt to counter fears of a slowdown after BHP Billiton's decision last week to shelve its $30 billion Olympic Dam expansion and Resource Minister Martin Ferguson's controversial declaration that the boom was over.

Against a dreary outlook for the prices of Australia's key exports, BIS Shrapnel believes the value of contracted resource projects means mining investment would not peak until 2014, with Queensland and Western Australia tied up with major projects for three to five years.

"After that, non-mining investment will stabilise and start to pick up, taking over as the engine of growth and smoothing the transition," says the BIS report, to be released today.

It suggests lower interest rates will boost retail spending, which had been held back by low confidence and weak demand rather than the Australian dollar.

"Over time, capacity constraints outside mining, such as those already evident in the construction sector, will prompt a broadening of investment beyond mining," it says.

Frank Gelber, chief economist at BIS Shrapnel, said the realisation that the investment mining boom was finite would cause people to "overreact on the pessimistic side".

"All of a sudden, the glass seems to have become one-quarter full, but nothing has changed," he told The Australian in a reference to Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens's optimistic glass-half-full depiction of Australia's economy.

"Our report aims to dispel some of the panicky discussion about the end of the boom," Mr Gelber said, predicting economic growth of 3 per cent this year and next.

BIS Shrapnel believes continued strong commodity prices will keep the Australian dollar high "for a few more years", putting pressure on other trade-exposed industries.

Trade Minister Craig Emerson said yesterday the mining boom was not even halfway through, while Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten noted that his department was projecting that another 100,000 jobs would be created in the mining industry over the next five years.

"Mr Ferguson is right: we might have reached the peak in prices, but volumes are still increasing and there are still plenty of projects," Mr Shorten said, attempting to paper over any divisions in cabinet.
"I don't think that the contribution that mining is going to make in jobs and economic output for Australia has at all peaked." Wayne Swan said the mining boom was better understood "as a series of booms - a boom in prices, a boom in investment and a boom in exports".

The Treasurer said that while the price boom had passed its peak, "the investment boom still has some way to run" and the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics had forecast commodity export earnings to reach a record $209 billion this financial year as higher volumes offset lower prices.

JPMorgan chief China economist Haibin Zhu, visiting Sydney last week, told Sky Business's Australian Business on Friday night Chinese demand for Australia's resources would slow but remain at a very high level over the next five to 10 years.

"What follows the recent boom is going to be far from a bust," he said, pointing out the Chinese government was intent on stabilising the country's growth at a lower but more stable level.
He warned that China's one-child policy would sap its potential economic growth rate by about one-quarter within the next five to 10 years.

"The share of working-age people in the population is shrinking and the number of workers will start to decline in the next few years," he said.

Mr Gelber also dismissed the impact of the carbon tax on BHP's decision to shelve its Olympic Dam copper, gold and uranium mine expansion, arguing it would go ahead once construction costs eased. "Such a long-term project means it is hard to predict ultimate prices and demand," he said.

Mr Swan said he was "pleased" to see discussion about the longevity of the mining boom. "But behaving as if the investment pipeline has suddenly run dry is not only false, it's irresponsible," he said, pointing out the Reserve Bank governor had said mining investment would not peak for a few years yet.

S.Africa should brace for a mining revolution: Malema

South African politician Julius Malema, a vociferous opponent of President Jacob Zuma, warns the country's mines should brace for a revolution unless workers' conditions improve.