China's Revenge Serves Body Blows to BHP and Rio

China's revenge serves body blows to BHP and Rio

It's taken six years, but China is slowly turning the tables on the heavyweight iron ore miners.

In 2009, iron ore giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto decided they wanted to take advantage of China's soaring demand for iron ore, which was pushing prices ever higher. So they ditched the 40-year old system of setting annual contract prices in favour of using spot pricing for the majority of their iron ore shipped to China from 2010.

Needless to say, China's steel mills weren't very happy about that. BHP's previous CEO Marius Kloppers is widely acknowledged as the man most responsible for bringing about the change. With BHP and Rio filling a huge amount of China's demand, the steelmakers had little choice but to acquiesce.

The changes, and China's thirst for iron ore, saw the iron ore price soar as high as US$191 per tonne in February 2011, from around US$60 per tonne in 2008. Rio Tinto produced record underlying earnings of US$15.5 billion in the 2011 financial year, with iron ore contributing US$12.9 billion. BHP, for its part, saw net profit rise 74 per cent to US$21.7 billion as revenues rose 36 per cent.

China may also still be sore over aluminium giant Chinalco's aborted US$19.5 billion investment in Rio Tinto back in 2010, which was aimed at gaining resource security. At the time, reports suggest Chinese officials feared that China was too vulnerable to both Rio and BHP, even separately. Rio's board canned the deal, and announced that it was instead forming an iron ore joint venture with BHP. That deal never went ahead – much to the relief of China.

The giant (re)awakens

But China has never forgotten, and appears unlikely to forgive. Now the sleeping giant has awakened, and looks set to turn the tables on Rio and BHP.

Firstly, China needed to loosen its dependence on the two Australian iron ore miners, so it has turned to Brazil's Vale. For many years Vale was snubbed by the Chinese. The iron ore giant had built a number of very large ore carriers to ship ore to China, but they have been banned from docking at Chinese ports since 2012.

Now, China hasn't just removed the restrictions but Vale has also sold 4 of the ore carriers to two of China's biggest shipping companies. Each carrier can transport up to 400,000 tonnes of iron ore, and could reduce Vale's production costs by as much as 25 per cent, according to some estimates. That would bring Vale's landed costs around the same as BHP and Rio's.

Vale also has a 25-year shipping agreement with China Cosco to transport iron ore from Brazil to China. China has gone another step further too, loaning Vale US$4 billion to help fund a US$16.5 billion project, known as S11D.

S11D is expected to produce 90 million tonnes of very high quality iron ore each year, taking Vale's production to 450 million tonnes of iron ore within the next few years.

In two moves, China has decreased its dependence on BHP and Rio, loosening their control over the iron ore market, and thanks to the increase supply of iron ore, achieved lower prices.

One last dance?

Fairfax Media reports today that Chinese-linked companies have applied to the Foreign Investment Review Board seeking permission for an investment with Australia's self-styled 'new force in iron ore' Fortescue Metals Group.

Fortescue, with its US$7.7 billion in net debt, could strengthen its balance sheet with a capital injection, either to pay down debt in return for an equity stake, or refinance existing debt at lower rates. The miner recently issued US$2.3 billion in senior secured notes, but is paying a whopping 9.75 pe cent interest rate, at a time when interest rates around the world are at record low levels.

Fortescue could struggle to repay its debt load if iron ore prices continue to trade at or under US$60 per tonne, with some estimates putting the miner's breakeven price around US$70 per tonne. The company may well be amenable to a deal with the Chinese, particularly after the recent kerfuffle over the iron ore inquiry that was going ahead, but was cancelled.

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Atlas Iron Digs in to Get $180 Million Life Support

Atlas Iron Digs in to Get $180 Million Life Support

Atlas Iron appears to have defied the odds and secured its future — albeit one that could leave the ­existing holdings of its investors massively diluted — on one of the brighter days in recent times for Australia’s smaller iron ore ­miners.

Atlas yesterday said it would raise up to $180 million in new ­equity to help retire its hefty debts after securing a series of novel agreements with its contractors that will allow it to reopen its ­Pilbara iron ore mines.

The breakthrough at Atlas came as Tony Abbott confirmed he was open to an inquiry into the industry, ­responding to pressure from Fortescue Metals Group’s billionaire chairman Andrew ­Forrest for government action.

Atlas, which at its peak was worth more than $3 billion, had looked all but dead and buried last month when it suspended its shares and announced the planned shutdown of its three Pilbara iron ore mines amid the slump in the iron ore price. Atlas had been burning through its cash and appeared to have little hope of repaying more than $300m in debt.

But the plans provide a path for Atlas to resume full production across its three mines, return to profitability and retire most of its outstanding debt.

Atlas said its Abydos mine was already back in production while its Wodgina operation would restart next week. The Mount Webber mine will come back on line in the September quarter.

The plans will save more than 700 jobs. Under the new structure, Atlas said its mines would be able to break even at a benchmark spot price of just $US50 a tonne. Iron ore is currently trading around $US62 a tonne.

The changes will clear the way for Atlas shares — suspended early last month — to ­resume trading by the end of next month.

“We basically reckon we’ve got the operating platform that’s going to provide a lot more ­sustainability and stability through the business,” Atlas ­managing director Ken Brinsden told The Weekend Australian. “It’s a bloody good deal.”

Key to the rescue of Atlas was a restructuring of agreements ­between the miner and contractors McAleese Group, Qube Logistics and MACA that will see them reduce the rates they charge Atlas, but share in any future ­upside as prices improve. The ­relief from the contractors was flagged by The Australian’s DataRoom column last month.

The contractors have also agreed to subscribe for $30m in new Atlas shares at a price of ­between 5c and 10c a share as part of the miner’s recapitalisation. McAleese — which had the most to lose from a shutdown of Atlas — will fund its purchase of $14m in Atlas stock entirely through debt. Shares last traded at 12c.

The equity raising from the contractors will supplement by a broader share issue to existing shareholders and new investors of up to $150m.

Each of the new shares, including the contractor shares, will come with one attaching option.

While the final price and full extent of the equity raising is yet to be determined, the number of Atlas shares on issue could ­increase from 919 million to as much as 4.5 billion as well as ­another 3.6 billion in options.

If fully subscribed, the Atlas ­equity raising would be the largest by an Australian miner this year.

The turnaround at Atlas has also been boosted by the WA government’s decision to cut port charges at the Utah Point port ­facility used by Atlas and fellow miner Mineral Resources by $2.50 a tonne.

The port discount comes on top of royalty relief already extended by the government to smaller iron ore miners. West Australian Resources and Finance Minister Bill Marmion said the relief package would also include the deferral of $12m in haulage fees for 12 months. “This is about doing our best for Western Australian workers and their families, by providing measured support for smaller companies that contribute so much to our communities,” Mr Marmion said.

Atlas chairman David Flanagan said that while the company was yet to receive any firm commitments to the proposed equity raising outside the contractors, he expected the raising to be well supported.

“How many companies would be making 20 per cent cash margins in any mining business right now? Not many. That’s what we’re making,” he said.

Mr Flanagan said that it was unlikely that Atlas would look to issue the full amount of equity flagged yesterday, but was instead seeking maximum flexibility.

“It’s not going to be a snowstorm of paper, it’s going to be a light sprinkling,” he said.

The new funding will be used to retire debt, while the attached options could provide another leg of funding for the company down the track. Mr Flanagan said he expected Atlas’s debt holders to view the proposed raising favourably, although he noted there was no requirement for the lenders to approve the plan.

“It will make their debt trade at a higher price, so it’s a win-win deal,” he said.

The equity raising will draw support from Atlas directors, with Mr Flanagan committing to spend $200,000 on new shares, Mr Brinsden $125,000, Jeff Dowling $30,000 and recently appointed director Cheryl Edwardes $10,000.

Mr Flanagan said Atlas’s near-death experience had reinforced the importance of forging tight bonds with the company’s various contractors. “This is what seems to happen to us every year or two. When we started our first mine, everyone was piling shit in front of us and we had to eat our way through it. Then there was another one, and another one, and this is just another one.”

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Atlas Iron Maintains Production at Two Out of Three Mines

Atlas Iron Maintains Production at Two Out of Three Mines

Iron ore miner Atlas has reversed its decision to mothball all of its operations, temporarily at least.

Three weeks ago the miner announced production would cease by the end of April at all three of its sites in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.

At the time Atlas said the decision had been forced by falling iron ore prices, despite considerable cost cutting.

But today Atlas advised the ASX mining will continue throughout May at two of the three sites.

Production will continue at the Abydos site and be resumed shortly at Wodgina, though mining and processing will remain suspended at Mt Webber.

The announcement is expected to give a reprieve to around 400 of the 600 workers affected by the original decision.

"The decision to continue operating at these projects ... is the result of a substantial reduction in forecast cash costs for May," Atlas said in its statement to the ASX on the decision.

"The cost reductions were achieved with the support of Atlas' key service providers."

Iron ore prices have recovered from under $US50 a tonne when the suspension was announced to as high as $US59.20 a tonne earlier this week.

The price has since backtracked a little to $US56.20 a tonne.

"Atlas expects to be cash flow-positive in May," today's ASX statement said.

"This is based on target all-in cash costs plus interest and sustaining capital expense."

But Atlas shares remain suspended and the company has given no indication of its intentions beyond this month.
Hopefully they continue, workers get a reprieve: CFMEU

CFMEU mining and resources division secretary Gary Wood said any reprieve for the workers was helpful in an industry where jobs were becoming rare.

"Obviously it's a positive in the shorter term and one can only hope there's an increase in [the iron ore] price to make it a sustainable operation," he said.

"It is a positive and hopefully they can continue and the workers do get that reprieve because there's no opportunities out there in the field at this time.

"I think they would have been running as efficiently as they can so it all comes back down to the price of ore."

Regional Development Australia (RDA) Pilbara chief Diane Pentz said she remained concerned about the number of people who had been retrenched.

She said the mining company's announcement was a "bright light" that was welcomed by the RDA Pilbara and by people in the community.

"I'm sure that it's a relief to a lot of people who are employed within this resource industry and I think it also starts to signal that there is some confidence around the recovery of the iron ore price," Ms Pentz said.

Metal Prices Aid Glencore’s Chances with Rio Tinto

The biggest, most complex mining deal ever broached could boil down to a simple ratio: the price of copper versus the price of iron ore.

Glencore PLC, the Swiss mining giant with massive copper holdings, last year proposed a roughly $US150 billion merger with Rio Tinto PLC, among the world’s biggest producers of iron ore. Glencore’s announcement that Rio rebuffed the bid on October 7 set off a six-month moratorium under UK law from another approach.

That cooling-off period ends tomorrow, potentially opening the door to more talks. The two miners had never publicly disclosed potential terms, and Rio (RIO) executives haven’t encouraged new talks.

But two factors have swung in Glencore’s favour that could encourage a deal creating the world’s largest mining company and give investors exposure to every major commodity.

Glencore’s shares are up more than 15 per cent since mid-January, when they briefly hit their lowest level since the company went public in 2011 amid a decline in copper prices, while Rio’s have dipped 3 per cent.

A big reason for the divergence: Ironore prices have continued their long decline from highs of $US190 a tonne reached in 2011, recently hitting a 10-year low below $US50 a tonne. Copper prices, meanwhile, have rebounded by about 5 per cent to just north of $US6,000 a tonne in the past month.

Industry experts also don’t expect to see a recovery in the price of iron ore, a primary steelmaking ingredient, anytime soon. Caroline Bain, senior commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in London, last month forecast that iron-ore prices are likely to hit $US45 a tonne by year-end as large surpluses of iron-ore continue to flood into the market and Chinese demand cools.

Such declines have been driven by unrelenting increase in iron ore production from Rio Tinto and its competitors such as BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA. If production isn’t curbed, prices could continue to fall, analysts say.

“Sooner or later either (Rio is) going to have to back away from the volume-growth strategy, or they’re going to have to face the prospect that their earnings are going to fall through the floor,” said Sanford C. Bernstein mining analyst Paul Gait. If Rio’s earnings keep falling and its share price suffers, “they’re going to be vulnerable to Glencore, “ he said.

Rio Tinto chief executive Sam Walsh has repeatedly said he isn’t interested in a deal with Glencore. At a February event in London, Mr Walsh said bluntly the merger “isn’t going to happen,” indicating he thought Glencore couldn’t pay a high-enough price.

Glencore’s shares have lost about one-fourth of their value since last July, when its chief executive, Ivan Glasenberg, placed a call to Rio Tinto Chairman Jan du Plessis to discuss a potential merger. Since Glencore would need to offer shares as part of the deal, the math has become significantly more daunting for Mr Glasenberg.

Glencore also is heavily exposed to the price of coal, which has stumbled for similar reasons to iron ore. Plus, any deal would face strict scrutiny from antitrust authorities in the UK and Australia, where Rio Tinto is based.

One of Glencore’s main hurdles in executing a Rio Tinto deal is its debt-heavy balance sheet. Glencore had $US30.5 billion in net debt at the end of 2014, compared with Rio’s $US12.5 billion in debt. That puts Glencore’s leverage ratio — net debt divided by the sum of debt and total equity — at about 40 per cent, roughly twice the leverage at Rio Tinto.

That could put a cap on how much more debt Glencore can take on to fund a Rio bid. More debt could threaten its credit ratings, putting pressure on its trading arm, which relies on leverage to fuel its operations.

In Glencore’s favour are rebounding copper prices, which could help push its share price higher. Mr Gait of Sanford C. Bernstein expects copper and other factors to help lift Glencore’s share price to nearly double where it currently stands.

Perhaps the biggest wildcard is China. China’s state-owned aluminium company, Chinalco, is Rio Tinto’s biggest shareholder. It has seen the value of its 9.8 per cent stake in the company cut roughly in half since it made the investment in 2008. Rio in 2009 rebuffed a bid by Chinalco to double its stake, which would have given it a seat on Rio’s board.

Those factors have brewed tensions with Chinalco, potentially leaving Beijing open to new leadership at Rio Tinto, said Michael Komesaroff, a long-time analyst of China and natural-resource trends.

A person who picked up the phone at Chinalco’s Beijing office said nobody was available for comment over the weekend, which was also a holiday in China.

Glencore in its 2013 merger with Xstrata proved it could bargain with the Chinese, getting Beijing’s approval for the deal in part by agreeing to sell its Las Bambas Peruvian copper project to a Chinese consortium.

China, the world’s biggest consumer of copper, is unlikely to have lost its appetite for ownership of copper mines, analysts say. One option for Glencore would be to offer to sell one of Rio’s prized copper mining assets, such as its 30 per cent stake in Chile’s Escondida mine.

“If the Chinese want to make it happen, it’s more than likely going to happen,” said Mr Komesaroff said.

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